What Would a Depression in 2009 Look Like?
By Joel Burslem, Monday, November 17, 2008.Bookmarking Sites
A thought-provoking (and depressing) summary from The Boston Globe:
The lines wouldn't be outside soup kitchens but at emergency rooms, and rather than itinerant farmers we could see waves of laid-off office workers leaving homes to foreclosure and heading for areas of the country where there's more work - or just a relative with a free room over the garage. Already hollowed-out manufacturing cities could be all but deserted, and suburban neighborhoods left checkerboarded, with abandoned houses next to overcrowded ones.
What's your take? Are we heading towards a Depression next year?
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Submitted by Shannon Ziccardi on November 17, 2008 - 6:52pm.
Though I felt compelled somehow to respond, it was only to say this: Such speculation is not a productive way to spend our time. Why not focus upon the good that is happening and avoild heralding the arrival of doom... Until we begin to concentrate on the solutions, consumer confidence and and a robust economy will continue to elude us.
I say that the glass really is half-full! Keep your chins up out there!
"A Quick Note"
www.aquicknote.net
Submitted by Tom Sykes on November 18, 2008 - 6:30am.
I strongly agree with Shannon. This is no time to be wasting our energy on self-fulfilling prophecies and negativity. The media has so much power, why not focus on the future and current bright spots and give people some hope? This was an extremely poor choice made by the editors at the Boston Globe (and I'm sure it will echo across all the national media).
It will get better - it always does.
Thomas Sykes, Director of Interactive Marketing
CENTURY 21 Town & Country
http://century21town-country.com
http://century21town-country.com/blog
Submitted by Bill Juran on November 20, 2008 - 6:13am.
How about the headline saying: "How Would a Recovery in 2009 Look Like?"
What is this constant negative drumbeat from the major media? Perhaps the answer is "It sells newspapers". But readership and advertising in major newspapers has been going down over the years (there's a reality).
I must agree with the previous two posts - this self fulfilling prophecy doesn't do anybody any good. Except for the writer, Joel Burslem, getting his paycheck.
It's amazing how many people I've spoken to since the beginning of 2008 that are convinced we've been in a recession. Isn't a recession 2 consecutive periods of negative GDP growth?
News Flash - that hasn't happened.
Hey Joel - how about really standing out from your colleagues, do your homework and write a story of what has to happen in the economy to continue the growth?
Bill
www.sellphillyproperty.com
Submitted by Lawrence Sanek on November 20, 2008 - 7:55am.
Well lets see what the media will do with this. It use to be the media would report what they saw. The big problem is they no longer report what the saw but do a self interview and report what they think or worse yet report what they want to have happen.
How about having the MEDIA START REPORTING MORE THEN DOOM AND GLOOM and REPORT THE GOOD THINGS that are happening as well. The medias biggest concern is how many readers/viewers do I have and can that translate into charging more for advertising.
Lets help this country out, not put it into a down hill slide. Lets get away from one sided news.
Can the media accept the challenge of actually reporting what is real and not putting slants on it for their own benefit.
Lawrence Sanek
www.castledreamrealestate.com
Submitted by Tamara Heyward on November 20, 2008 - 8:51am.
The media may have a sensationalistic way of reporting the news of the day, but it is not their fault that the stock market is down and unemployment is up. When our clients come to us with concerns based on what they've seen in the media, I hope that we don't immediately go on the attack and start ranting about how the media is just wrong and out to sell papers. That doesn't help to calm their fears one bit, and makes us look unprofessional, and negative, and emotional. And isn't that what we just accused the media of being? Pot...kettle...black...you get the picture.
I agree with Tom, things will get better. I think the best thing we can do is put the accurate information out there, and work with our clients and customers to understand day to day what is happening, and how they can weather the storm.
Submitted by Joel Burslem on November 20, 2008 - 9:04am.
Hi Bill,
Thanks for the feedback. I do understand where you're coming from. Far from trying to be sensationalistic I brought this story to the attention of Inman readers because I thought the piece, while admittedly depressing, was an interesting read. Chances are the Globe writer could be completely and utterly wrong.
Personally, I'm not pessimistic about the future, but I certainly welcome the debate.
Joel
Submitted by Russell Volk on November 20, 2008 - 11:06am.
Hopefully not. I know many people who have lost their corporate jobs and are really suffering now. It's not like people don't have money to spend, they're just scared to spend it. And it's not just big purchases. Coupon generating websites are booming now. Everyone is trying to save some money. Let's hope that Barak Obama will prevent the recession from occuring.
Visit the most complete Bucks County Real Estate guide on the Internet.
Submitted by Julie Jones on November 20, 2008 - 12:32pm.
This type of negative hype doesn't deserve a comment. Kudos to all the forward, positive thinkers (no political affiliation required)who clearly are prepared to work together to bring the US economy to an all new height--starting in our own neighborhoods.
Count me in for conversation there!
Submitted by Jillayne Schlicke on November 20, 2008 - 1:29pm.
I just finished reading the Boston Globe story. Thanks for the link, Joel.
I recommend looking at the news stories through a different lense; like turning the lense of a kalidescope and seeing something different.
Read the story from the perspective of a real estate agent who is looking for where the opportunities are...real estate trends and opportunities are sprinkled throughout that story.
It may be unwise to pass the stories by if they appear to be negative on the outset. The author rarely writes the title of the article.
Submitted by Eric Bouler on November 21, 2008 - 8:35pm.
Eric Bouler
Prudential Gardner
New Orleans,La.
www.neworleanscondotrends.com
www.ericbouler.com
Living in New Orleans in the time of Hurricane Katrina and the aftermath may be what a depression would feel like. The experience has put many things in perspective. We are still living with it today over 3 years later.
Submitted by George Farmer on November 23, 2008 - 3:08pm.
Plus they will be living in their giant SUV's. Actually we are in a vastly different world and intelligence level from then. I don't think we will turn into a dust bowl with horses pulling the BMW's. This too will pass.
Land For Sale
Submitted by William Metzker on November 24, 2008 - 12:09pm.
I didn't reply when Joel's article first appeared because I didn't have time. After reading the replies, I'm glad I had to wait. What I'm more intrigued with than the article itself--a terrific piece--are the replies.
On my office desk, I keep a hardbound copy of an essay by Princeton PhD. Harry Frankfurt. One of George Carlin's words you can't say on T.V is in the title, so let's just say the essay is entitled "On B******t." I keep it there as a reality check.
Perhaps the central point in the essay is what b******t is and isn't. It's not a lie, since a liar knows he's speaking a falsehood. B******t, on the other hand, does not require the speaker's adherence to Truth or Falsehood. He or she may say whatever he or she wants with complete disregard for objective truth.
To bellyache about the Boston Globe's essay as an example of hard times being caused by scurrilous media runs dangerously close to engaging in b******t. These statements ignore reality, which is a failing financial system and several quarters of negative growth. It falls into the same category as "There's never been a better time to buy," or "I'm going to provide her with the house of her dreams," and speaks to why the public is wary of real estate agents.
Submitted by Jaime Sandoval on November 28, 2008 - 6:41pm.
I am a Proud San Antonio Realtor. San Antonio has a very stable Market with the Median Home Price at 149,000.
http://www.sanantoniotxrealestateforsale.com/
San_Antonio_North_Central_Real_Estate_Listings_or_Homes_For_Sale.html
Submitted by Cynthia Morris on November 29, 2008 - 8:26am.
Cynthia Morris
Broker-Owner EPHomeSearch Real Estate Services
I say WOW, not at the thought of a global depression but at the responses. Yes we Americans are who we are based on how we started off, our faith in God, and our never ending hope and dreams. Our nation, our communities, our families, our neighborhoods, and our industry will weather these times just like we did before and come out of it strong and vital. So if you know someone that is depressed by the times, remind them what we have already come thru, and that we will overcome. This Texas gals says to any and all doubters....just hide and watch.
Submitted by Lisa P on December 8, 2008 - 2:50am.
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Submitted by Karen Thompson on December 18, 2008 - 2:41pm.
Well, I don't mean any harm to any of those optomistic people that blogged here before me, but I am very much concerned about what the country would look like after a depression...I have done all of the things that we are brainwashed to believe would help me to live the American Dream. I went to collge, got a Bachelor's Degree, and then got a Master's Degree....I purchased a home that was within my means at the time, in hopes of getting a better paying job and moving to a more affluent lifestyle. Guess what, there are no jobs where I live, and there hasn't been in at least two years, unemployment rates are at an all time high here, and crime is steadily on the rise because people want to eat...I live in the land of Elvis....Memphis, TN, and we barely even have a classified section in our newsaper anymore because the economy here is so bad. Now I am stuck having to pay for an education that is currently not serving me any purpose and I still can't get the piece of the American Dream that I so longed for when I went to college...and for the record, we've been in a recession since December of 2007, at the admission of the Congress! So while I think optimism is good, REALITY is just as important. And my reality is that life as I know it is hanging in the balance. My company is talking about layoffs...something it's never considered in its 90 year existence. If that doesn't say depression, I don't know what does!
Submitted by Bob Jameson on January 2, 2009 - 1:17am.
A question we would all like the answer to I'm sure. With hopes that the new administration can secure some form of trust in the housing market my personal belief is 2009 will bring some stabilization to the market and not tell 2010 will we really see the market begin a slow rebound, but don't expect to see levels like in the past for some time.
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